The Just-in-Time Second Lions Test Preview
A Lions Test at the MCG—what is this, a crossover episode?
A Lions Test at the MCG—what is this, a crossover episode?
As my two interests, rugby and cricket (and yes, it is still a cricket ground, whatever the AFL may think), converge, so too will an estimated 84,000 rugby fans converge on arguably sport’s greatest cauldron (well, it’ll never be the hallowed turf of Lancaster Park, but it’ll do). The atmosphere will be electric. I usually don’t watch the pre-match shows, but I will be this time. If only they offered a ‘crowd and referee mic only’ audio stream, I’d be all over it (is anyone from Stan or Sky Sports listening? And full, ball-in-play replays too, while you’re at—give me a rugby equivalent to NBA League Pass and you can have my credit card). It’s gonna be loud.
As a warning before we get too far into this, if my writing is a little more scattered or typo-laden than usual, I’ve had a couple of routine procedures at the hospital (all good) earlier today. As excuses go, I think it’s a phenomenal one. It’s also why this article is slightly later than I’d have preferred.
First things first, I have a sneaky feeling about the Wallabies for this one.
There are a bunch of reasons for this, namely:
It’s a must-win Test for the Wallabies. Conversely, it’s a really, really nice to win Test for the Lions. The higher up the levels of rugby you go—and only World Cup knockouts and arguably the very highest quality All Black v Bok contests are played at a higher intensity than a must-win Lions Test—the more these things tend to matter. Every single Lions player and member of their support staff would deny it, but somewhere, maybe even subconsciously, in their minds, they’ll know that worst case, they get another shot at this next week. The Wallabies have no such safety net. At the very highest levels, where technical skill gaps are minimal, those little mental 1%-ers like motivation tend to matter disproportionately.
The Wallabies have significantly improved their side through the additions of Rob Valetini and Will Skelton. We’ll get to these in more detail in a second, but their importance cannot be overstated. For my money, Rob Valetini is the best number six in the world right now, and I include Pieter-Steph Du Toit in that bracket. On the other hand, I think the Lions have ever-so-slightly weakened their side through the losses of the outstanding Joe McCarthy and Sione Tuipulotu (if only because they now no longer have an established national midfield pairing, nor an in-built 10-12 connection). Again, fine margins make a difference.
Last week, the Wallabies played like a bunch of guys who had played one game of professional rugby against Fiji in the last 6-8 weeks, depending on when they were eliminated from Super Rugby. In that time, to take a random example, Finn Russell played a Premiership semi-final, final and three warm-up tour games. The Wallabies improved notably throughout the Test last week, and I believe they’ll be significantly better for the hitout.
In ‘modern’ Lions history, which I’m taking to mean 1980 onwards, second Tests have been decided by:
7 (SA 26-19 Lions, 1980)
9 (All Blacks 9-0 Lions, 1983; 4-0 Tour Result)
7 (Australia 12-19 Lions, 1989)
13 (All Blacks 7-20 Lions, 1993; we still won 2-1, just thought I’d mention that for no reason)
3 (South Africa 15-18 Lions, 1997)
21 (Australia 35-14 Lions, 2001)
30 lol (All Blacks 48-18 Lions)
3 (South Africa 28-25 Lions, 2009)
1 (Australia 16-Lions 15)
3 (moving on…)
18 (South Africa 27-9 Lions)
It doesn’t mean everything, but 8 of the last 11 second Lions Tests have been decided by 10 points or fewer, while 4 of the last 7 have been decided by three points or fewer.
I’m seeing significant parallels between this tour and 2013, where the Wallabies also lost the first Test after trailing at half time (though only 12-13) and looked a little underpepared, then came back to win the second Test narrowly after making significant changes to their back three, swapping out Berrick Barnes and Digby Ioane in the starting XV and Patt McCabe on the bench with Kurtley Beale, Joe Tomane, and Jesse Mogg.
WALLABIES (15-1): Tom Wright; Max Jorgensen, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, Len Ikitau, Harry Potter; Tom Lynagh, Jake Gordon; Harry Wilson (capt), Fraser McReight, Rob Valetini, Will Skelton, Nick Frost; Allan Alaalatoa, Dave Porecki, James Slipper
Replacements: Billy Pollard, Angus Bell, Tom Robertson, Jeremy Williams, Langi Gleeson, Carlo Tizzano, Tate McDermott, Ben Donaldson
LIONS (15-1): Hugo Keenan; Tommy Freeman, Huw Jones, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Finn Russell, Jamison Gibson-Park; Jack Conan, Tom Curry, Tadhg Beirne; Ollie Chessum, Maro Itoje (capt); Tadhg Furlong, Dan Sheehan, Andrew Porter
Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Ellis Genge, Will Stuart, James Ryan, Jac Morgan, Alex Mitchell, Owen Farrell, Blair Kinghorn
In terms of the changes to the respective 23s, bringing in Valetini, Skelton, and Gleeson signals to me that Joe Schmidt has focused heavily on carrying the ball this week, and doing so consistently across the 80 minutes. Of the top 15 ball-carriers by volume in Super Rugby this year (pictured below), four (and four of the top five Australians) appear in Joe Schmid’s 23, with two (Wright and Valetini) in the starting XV and two more (Gleeson and Bell) on the bench.
Of the top 15 ball-carriers in Super Rugby this year, only Canakaivata, Lakai, and Tupaea had a higher dominant carry percentage than Valetini’s rate of 39.9%. Similarly, among the top 15, no one has a better gainline percentage than Wright’s 72.8%, with Gleeson ranking only behind Wright, Sotutu, and Grealy by this metric at 68.7%.
Bell’s rate of committing 2+ tacklers (77.1%) is second to none among the top 15, and Gleeson’s is third at 72%.
Add Will Skelton to this mix, who commits two tacklers at a rate of 80.2%, which ranked fifth in the Top 14 this year, and I’m certain that Schmidt’s broad objective with these selections, including the 6/2 bench split, is to try to committ more tacklers and bodies through the forwards, to therefore offer Tom Lynagh more time and space, and subsequently free up the likes of Sualii, Jorgensen et al. That’s the theory, at least. The million-dollar question, as ever when Skelton is selected, is: how will the lineout operate?
On the Lions’ side of things, Chessum and Porter coming in should provide even more cohesion in the tight five and at set-piece time, as we now have an all-Ireland front row and an all-England lock pairing. In the backs, Bundee Aki is a proven class operator who will do the sort of reliable things that Bundee Aki does. My only comment here is that I bet Farrell would have preferred to have selected an all-Ireland or all-Scotland midfield if injuries hadn’t forced his hand there.
On the bench, Jac Morgan has hit the sixth most attacking rucks and second most defensive rucks (32) of any Lion on tour and will doubtless be a pest to counter Tizzano and Gleeson’s injection.
Which brings me to Owen Farrell’s inclusion on the bench. This is likely going to be a controversial statement, but for mine, Owen Farrell is the most talented back that England has ever produced, and I include Johnny Wilkinson in this mix. I mean this in the same sense that LeBron is more talented and rounded than Jordan, and Tendulkar was more talented and rounded than Bradman. This is simply because of the inexorable march of time, professional sport constantly growing and evolving, the rapid advancement of sports and data science, and the standard of athletes and skillsets broadly increasing across all sports. Farrell is so vastly, vastly underappreciated that it utterly baffles me. Well, it did, until it clicked recently after watching the respective David Beckham and Freddy Flintoff documentaries, and reliving the awful treatment the British press put both through. Beckham also moved to Europe to escape it; Flintoff simply withdrew from the public eye. Does this ring any bells with Farrell? How about this quote from Saracens boss Mark McCall in 2023:
“The narrative around Owen began in the mainstream media. Everybody will, somewhere in their heads, agree with that. All I'm saying is that we have zero control over social media. There was a social media pile-on, but it was created in the mainstream media, so some in the media need to look at themselves. I don't know what he's done to deserve the way he has been treated.”
Will those slimy, sub-human tabloid scum and the social media trolls who are barely better ever learn?
There aren’t many players I’d prefer over O. Farrell to cover multiple positions, offer calmness, experience, and composure off the bench, and potentially even slot a match-winning kick.
Anyway, back to the rugby. Given all this, I’m happy to put my money where my mouth is and have chucked $5 on the Wallabies to cover the (generous, in my opinion) -9.5 line most bookies are offering. PLEASE NOTE: This should in no way be interpreted as betting advice, nor am I promoting a specific betting platform. My thoughts on the matter are that you should only gamble at all if you can do so responsibly and ideally in small increments as an additive experience to the main event: the sport itself. This will vary from person to person.
Selfishly, as a neutral, I hope I’m right, so that next week I can preview a series decider. Either way, see you then.
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